Strategic advice for war and statecraft by the Byzantine Empire

I. Avoid war by every possible means, in all possible circumstances, but always act as if war might start at any time. Train intensively and be ready for battle at all times -- but do not be eager to fight. The highest purpose of combat readiness is to reduce the probability of having to fight.

II. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his mentality, and monitor his actions continuously. Efforts to do so by all possible means might not be very productive, but they are seldom wasted.

III. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and defensively, but avoid battles, especially large-scale battles, except in very favorable circumstances. Don't think like the Romans, who viewed persuasion as just an adjunct to force. Instead, employ force in the smallest possible doses to help persuade the persuadable and harm those not yet amenable to persuasion.

IV. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation of countries with maneuver warfare -- lightning strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies, followed by rapid withdrawals. The object is not to destroy your enemies, because they can become tomorrow's allies. A multiplicity of enemies can be less of a threat than just one, so long as they can be persuaded to attack one another.

V. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting allies to change the balance of power. Diplomacy is even more important during war than peace. Reject, as the Byzantines did, the foolish aphorism that when the guns speak, diplomats fall silent. The most useful allies are those nearest to the enemy, for they know how best to fight his forces.

VI. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So cheap, in fact, as compared with the costs and risks of battle, that it must always be attempted, even with the most seemingly irreconcilable enemies. Remember: Even religious fanatics can be bribed, as the Byzantines were some of the first to discover, because zealots can be quite creative in inventing religious justifications for betraying their own cause ("since the ultimate victory of Islam is inevitable anyway …").

VII. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough and fighting is unavoidable, use methods and tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid consuming combat forces, and patiently whittle down the enemy's strength. This might require much time. But there is no urgency because as soon as one enemy is no more, another will surely take his place. All is constantly changing as rulers and nations rise and fall. Only the empire is eternal -- if, that is, it does not exhaust itself.

Via: garry’s subposterous

Turgid Truth

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"The great source of both the misery and disorders of human life, seems to arise from over-rating the difference between one permanent situation and another.... Some of those situations may, no doubt, deserve to be preferred to others: but none of them can deserve to be pursued with that passionate ardour which drives us to violate the rules either of prudence or of justice; or to corrupt the future tranquillity of our minds, either by shame from the remembrance of our own folly, or by remorse from the horror of our own injustice." Adam Smith

from TED video "Dan Gilbert asks, Why are we happy?" [min 19:35]

Economy Internet Trends (2009)

Economy Internet Trends (2009)

The Hawthorne effect

The Hawthorne effect is a form of reactivity whereby subjects improve an aspect of their behavior being experimentally measured simply in response to the fact that they are being studied, not in response to any particular experimental manipulation.
The term was coined in 1955 by Henry A. Landsberger[3] when analyzing older experiments from 1924-1932 at the Hawthorne Works (a Western Electric manufacturing facility outside Chicago). Hawthorne Works had commissioned a study to see if its workers would become more productive in higher or lower levels of light. The workers' productivity seemed to improve when changes were made and slumped when the study was concluded. It was suggested that the productivity gain was due to the motivational effect of the interest being shown in them. Although illumination research of workplace lighting formed the basis of the Hawthorne effect, other changes such as maintaining clean work stations, clearing floors of obstacles, and even relocating workstations resulted in increased productivity for short periods of time. Thus the term is used to identify any type of short-lived increase in productivity.

Via: wikipedia

Everything You Wanted To Know About Startup Building But Were Afraid To Ask

Let’s say you have an idea for a startup. How do you begin the process of finding cofounders and employees, creating a corporation, handing investors, growing the company, etc.? There are lots of details about building a startyp that are usually a mystery to the newly initiated founder. Usually you have to learn this stuff on the job, making mistakes along the way.

Patzer shows how he raised and spent money, and generated revenue, throughout the lifecycle of Mint, from the very beginning to the $170 million acquisition. He also showed historical slides from early presentations to investors and compares those to the actual results.

Mint CEO Aaron Patzer on Startups from Techcrunch on Vimeo.

Via techcrunch

how to create a successful startup - Paul Graham at Startup School 08

Paradosso del compleanno

Il paradosso del compleanno (o problema del compleanno) è un paradosso di teoria della probabilità definito nel 1939 da Richard von Mises. Il paradosso afferma che la probabilità che almeno due persone in un gruppo compiano gli anni lo stesso giorno è largamente superiore a quanto potrebbe dire l'intuito: infatti già in un gruppo di 23 persone la probabilità è circa del 51%; con 30 persone essa supera il 70%, con 50 persone tocca addirittura il 97%, anche se per arrivare all'evento certo occorre considerare un gruppo di almeno 367 persone (per il principio dei cassetti).
Per effettuare il calcolo, si ricorre alla formula per la probabilità degli eventi indipendenti: per rendere più semplice il calcolo si assume che gli anni siano tutti di 365 giorni e che i compleanni siano equiprobabili, anche se ciò non è esatto. Aggiungere il giorno bisestile peggiora leggermente la probabilità, ma in compenso il fatto che i compleanni non siano equiprobabili la alza.
Il modo più semplice per calcolare la probabilità P(p) che ci siano almeno due persone appartenenti ad un gruppo di p persone che compiano gli anni lo stesso giorno è calcolare dapprima la probabilità P1(p) che ciò non accada. Il ragionamento è questo: data una qualunque persona del gruppo (indipendentemente dalla data del suo compleanno), vi sono 364 casi su 365 in cui il compleanno di una seconda persona avvenga in un giorno diverso; se si considera una terza persona, ci sono 363 casi su 365 in cui compie gli anni in un giorno diverso dalle prime due persone e via dicendo.